As unemployment rises and the job market continues to slow due to the Fed's prior interest rate increases, we are currently at 0.30 on this Sahm Rule metric (Figure 8).

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4658327-rvt-cef-smallcaps-may-outperform-in-soft-landing-scenario?source=feed_all_articles

The Sahm Rule Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/weekly-market-outlook-04-08-december-20231203/